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TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA
* SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS
* ISLA MARIAS
* LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N  97.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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