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Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Satellite images indicate that Pamela is continuing to strengthen.
The low-level center is on the northern edge of a growing area of
deep convection, although there is still a fair bit of northerly
shear as indicated by the V-shape to the cloud tops on infrared
satellite imagery. Intensity estimates are rising, so the wind
speed is set to 45 kt, closest to the latest TAFB classification.
The current moderate shear is forecast to relax some tomorrow as
Pamela moves closer to the center of an upper-level high. Combined
with the very warm waters in the path of the storm, this should set
the stage for continued strengthening. Rapid intensification is
also possible in a day or so when Pamela is in a shear minimum and
likely has a better-developed inner core. The intensity forecast is
raised from the previous one, although it remains below the
corrected- consensus guidance. This could be a conservative
forecast if the favorable environment shown by the GFS model
materializes.
Pamela has slowed some tonight, now 295/10 kt. The steering
pattern seems well defined for the next day or so with a ridge
controlling the storm's motion in a west-northwest to northwest
direction. A broad mid-latitude trough causes the ridge to erode in
a couple of days, forcing the cyclone to turn northward and
northeastward by late Tuesday and move faster. The most significant
guidance change is that more of the models are showing a quicker
progression toward the coast of west-central Mexico. This makes
meteorological sense as well, with a more powerful hurricane likely
feeling the stronger upper-level southwesterly winds. The new
forecast is adjusted toward the northeast beyond 24 hours, near or
just behind the model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could
bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous
winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should
monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place.
2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or
early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to
the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be
required for portions of this area early Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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