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HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 74 25(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 14 67(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 3 43(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 74 24(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 12 62(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 2 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
LA PAZ 34 2 49(51) 7(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
LA PAZ 50 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
LA PAZ 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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