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Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest
to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is
expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just
to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur tonight and on
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Olaf could be near hurricane strength by this evening or tonight.
The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area later this afternoon or evening and will spread
northward within the warning area tonight.
RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa later today,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.