ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021
...OLAF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night,
followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of
southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm
is expected to begin weakening on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja
California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.
RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.