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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF TODOS SANTOS AND SOUTH OF LOS
BARRILES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF TODOS SANTOS
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF LORETO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 110.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.0N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 110.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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