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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM NORTH OF SANTE FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND FROM SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 108.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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