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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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