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Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021
 
Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level 
circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has 
now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and 
barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a 
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of 
Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent 
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support 
downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with 
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.
 
The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it 
pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate 
now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow 
cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a 
extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will 
continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion 
beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the 
cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a 
little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus 
aids.
 
A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and
very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should
ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone.
The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in
12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual 
dissipation over the open east Pacific.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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