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Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021
Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level
circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has
now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of
Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support
downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.
The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it
pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate
now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow
cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a
extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will
continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion
beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the
cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a
little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus
aids.
A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and
very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should
ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone.
The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in
12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual
dissipation over the open east Pacific.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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