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TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 10(61) 1(62)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) 1(25)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 52(57) 10(67) X(67)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) 2(37)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 54(66) 14(80) 1(81) X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 33(51) 1(52) X(52)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 105W 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
15N 105W 50 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
15N 105W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 42(46) 5(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 3 16(19) 34(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
L CARDENAS 34 8 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
NNNN
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