ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021
 
...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning 
south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a 
Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch 
from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was 
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward 
motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday.  Nora is 
forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of 
Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right 
of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate 
within the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple 
of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. 
However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves 
inland sooner than forecast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the 
Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible 
within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on 
Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.
 
Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf
of California.  Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches is possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm
warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California
Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN