ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...NORA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Altata Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 22.0 North, longitude 105.7
West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a
slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is
forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through
early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of
the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate
within the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two
if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will
likely occur if the center moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and
are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja
California Sur on Monday.
RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early this week
along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan
northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Toward the middle and latter part of this week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.