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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA'S CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER MAKING 
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST JALISCO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Altata Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located 
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 
West. Surface data from Mexico and data from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nora made landfall along the 
northwest coast of Jalisco near Vincente Guerrero, and has continued 
to move near the coast since then. Nora is moving toward the north 
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward north-northwest is possible 
tonight and on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion 
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the current forecast track, the 
center of Nora will continue to move near the coast of Mexico during 
the next several hours. It could then re-emerge over the Gulf of 
California, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through 
early next week. However, even a small deviation of the hurricane's 
motion to the right could cause Nora to move further inland and 
dissipate.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph (130 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the 
next few days if Nora's center moves over the waters of the Gulf 
of California.  However, weakening would likely occur if the center
moves further inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the 
southern parts of the hurricane warning area and are likely to 
spread northward within hurricane warning area through Sunday.  
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch 
area late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the 
tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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