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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
JALISCO...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
* North of San Blas to Altata Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West.  Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is expected to
continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to
or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico, during the next 
several hours.  A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest 
at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday.  On 
the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the 
Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the 
Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight if Nora's center does not move inland over Mexico.  
Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or 
Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through 
Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).  A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently 
reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco.  A gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) 
was also reported at Manzanillo, Colima.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Nora's eyewall is moving onshore the coast of southern 
Jalisco and western Colima.  Hurricane conditions are imminent 
within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and will 
spread northward within warning area through tonight.  Hurricane 
conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight 
and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and 
Sunday night.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over tropical 
storm warning area south of Manzanillo and will spread to the 
northern tropical storm warning area north of San Blas this evening 
through Sunday night.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and the central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of
the center if Nora makes landfall.  The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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