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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND 
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from 
Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the 
next 24-36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was 
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A motion 
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach 
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the 
coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight.  Nora 
is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on 
Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a 
hurricane later today.
 
Nora is a large tropical storm.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. 
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch 
area later today.  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring 
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will 
spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm 
watch area tonight and Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.
 
As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will
move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja
California Sur.  Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may
occur as a result.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and 
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast 
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the 
weekend and into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
 
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