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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021
 
...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 107.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of
Topolobampo to Huatabampito.  The Tropical Storm Warning south of
Mazatlan to Escuinapa has been discontinued, and the Tropical Storm
Watch from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Topolobampo to Huatabampito Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 
24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the 
progress of Nora.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 107.5 West.  Nora is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A 
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 
expected to begin tonight and continue through early this week.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple
of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves
inland sooner than forecast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Jalisco to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward
through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with
maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding 
in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area.  
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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