ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
 
...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
south of San Blas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Altata Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).   A turn toward the 
north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward 
motion tonight through Tuesday.  Nora is forecast to move very near 
and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this 
week.  However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast 
track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next 
day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two
if Nora's center stays over water.  However, rapid weakening will
likely occur if the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area today and tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible
in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions
are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico,
and  are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja
California Sur on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and 
Michoacan through Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima 
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf 
of California.  Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 
20 inches is possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening 
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum 
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated 
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for 
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and 
central Rockies. 
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
this week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN