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Hurricane NORA


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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND
NAYARIT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA
OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from
east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Altata Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5
West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed 
by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora 
is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through
early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of 
the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and
dissipate.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of
California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center
moves further inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern
hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through
the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible
within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on
Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week
along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan
northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur.  This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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