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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA'S CENTER GRAZING THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NAYARIT AND
SINALOA COASTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 105.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
and Hurricane Watch north of San Blas to Altata, Mexico, to a
Hurricane Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Altata Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a
slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will move near or over western
Jalisco during the next few hours, and then move over the Gulf
of California near or along the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa
tonight through Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next few 
days if Nora's center remains over the waters of the Gulf of 
California.  However, weakening would likely occur if the center 
moves inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).  A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently 
reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring within the southern
portion of the hurricane warning area and are likely to spread 
northward within hurricane warning area through Monday.  Hurricane 
conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area late 
Monday.  Tropical storm conditions will continue over the tropical
storm warning area through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California
Sur on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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