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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward
from Mazatlan to Topolobampo and has extended the Tropical Storm
Warning northward from Mazatlan to Altata.  A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to
La Paz.
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch south
of Manzanillo and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south
of Lazaro Cardenas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
* North of San Blas to Altata Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.4 West.  Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is expected
to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close 
to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico.  A motion toward 
the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is 
expected Sunday through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Nora's 
center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday 
and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast 
through tonight if Nora's center does not make landfall.  Some 
gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, 
but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the
watch area Sunday and Sunday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm
warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning
area this evening through Sunday night.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and the central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of 
the center if Nora makes landfall.  The surge will be accompanied 
by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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