ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021
 
...NORA TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
JALISCO, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 104.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north
of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was 
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.3 West.  Nora is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A motion toward 
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern 
coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of 
the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday 
night.  Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California 
on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora 
is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.
 
Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  An 
automated weather station in Puerto Vicente, Guerrero, Mexico, has 
reported wind gusts as high as 44 mph (72 km/h) during the past 
several hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring 
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible.
 
As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible.
 
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and 
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast 
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the 
weekend into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN