ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 99.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression.  Watches may be required for a
portion of the coast on Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 99.4
West.  The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 
km/h).  A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, 
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday and 
north-northwest on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Saturday and then approach 
the southern portion of Baja California Sur later in the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The depression 
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then reach 
hurricane intensity over the weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce 
heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday.  
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend 
with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible.  As a result, 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN