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HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD
FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
LA PAZ.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.  ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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