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HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF
CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO...AND HAS UPGRADED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
* NORTH SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FURTHER UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
 
 
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