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TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 105.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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