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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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