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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the 
center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in 
bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time.  
Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 
kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques 
are also in the 30-35 kt range.  In addition, earlier scatterometer 
data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the 
center.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt.  The cyclone 
is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a 
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer 
trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during 
the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to 
north-northwestward as a result.  The track guidance continues to 
show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 
48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the 
guidance show a landfall in Mexico.  The ECMWF model is farther to 
the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is 
between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland 
Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the 
Baja California peninsula.  The forecast track is similar to the 
previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center 
offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur.  
However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track 
forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and 
in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the 
system and potential changes to the forecast.

The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly 
vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h.  After 
that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the 
center stays far enough offshore.  The new intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge 
of the intensity guidance.  The 48-120 h portion of the forecast 
again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of 
land interaction.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday 
night.  While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass 
near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds 
and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and 
mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several 
days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of 
this system and updates to the forecast.
2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area.  Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.
INIT  26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Beven