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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the
center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in
bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time.
Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30
kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques
are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer
data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the
center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone
is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer
trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during
the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to
north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to
show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between
48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the
guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to
the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is
between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland
Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the
previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center
offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur.
However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track
forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and
in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the
system and potential changes to the forecast.
The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly
vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After
that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the
center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge
of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast
again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of
land interaction.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday
night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass
near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds
and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and
mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several
days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of
this system and updates to the forecast.
2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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