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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
Recent satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the 
depression has not become better organized this evening. It is 
producing a ragged area of convection over the northwestern portion 
of its circulation, which appears somewhat elongated along an 
east-west axis. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and 
subjective 00z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an 
initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.
The estimated initial motion of the poorly organized depression is 
an uncertain 280/6 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally 
westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the 
south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western 
U.S. is forecast to weaken the steering ridge during the next couple 
of days. Thus, the depression is forecast to gain some latitude and 
move west-northwestward overnight and Thursday, and then 
northwestward or north-northwestward on Friday and Saturday. 
Although the track guidance consensus and many GEFS and ECMWF 
ensemble members still keep the center of the cyclone offshore, 
there was a pronounced eastward shift in the guidance envelope this 
cycle. In fact, the GFS and several GEFS members show the system 
moving inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. 
The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of 
the previous one from 48 h onward and lies along the HFIP corrected 
consensus approach (HCCA) aid. This brings the center of the cyclone 
closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, but remains offshore and 
to the left of much of the latest guidance. The extended forecast 
takes the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur 
early next week, but overall there is above average uncertainty in 
the extended portion of the track forecast. Interests along the 
coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should 
closely monitor future updates to the forecast.
The depression is located within a favorable thermodynamic 
environment for strengthening, but moderate to strong northeasterly 
vertical wind shear should limit its intensification rate in the 
short-term period. The shear is expected to weaken by Friday, and 
the system is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend over very 
warm SSTs. There remains a large amount of spread in the intensity 
guidance beyond 48 h, due to the potential for land interaction 
earlier in the forecast period. Since the latest NHC track forecast 
keeps the system offshore, the intensity forecast is much higher 
than the consensus aids during this period and trends toward the 
stronger statistical-dynamical guidance. Again, confidence is lower 
than normal in the day 3-5 forecast.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday.  While the
core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect
portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this
area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates
to the forecast.
2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area.  Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.
INIT  26/0300Z 11.9N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch