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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021
Satellite images indicate that Linda has been maintaining its
intensity over the past 12 h or so. The hurricane has begun to
lose some of its annular characteristics, as cloud tops in the
northern semicircle are warmer than in the southern semicircle.
However, the eye remains clear, and the overall structure has not
changed much in the last 6 h. Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
were both T-5.0/90 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 90
kt for this advisory.
Linda is currently over SSTs near 26C, but SSTs along the path of
the cyclone will decrease to below 25C in about 12 h, then remain
in the 24-25C range during the 12 to 48 h period. Vertical wind
shear will remain low through 48 h, but mid-level relative humidity
will decrease and become very dry over the next 48 h. Despite the
favorable dynamics through 48 h, the unfavorable thermodynamics
will likely cause weakening to below hurricane strength by 48 h. By
72 h, wind shear is forecast to increase and become strong by day 4
as Linda approaches a potent upper-level trough located to the
northwest of Oahu. This will ultimately lead to the loss of deep
convection, despite a slight increase in water temperatures along
the cyclone's path at that time. Linda is forecast to become a
post-tropical gale by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and is in best
agreement with the DSHP statistical-dynamical guidance.
The initial motion is 280/11, which is unchanged from 6 h ago.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda
in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days.
The new NHC forecast track is virtually unchanged from the previous
one and is in best agreement with the TVCN and HCCA consensus
models. Linda is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific in
about 36 h and is expected to pass to the north of the Hawaiian
Islands as a post-tropical gale late Sunday into Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.2N 131.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.9N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.7N 136.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.8N 142.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 145.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 22.6N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL