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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021
 
Linda still has annular characteristics with a large circular
eye evident in satellite images and a ring of deep convection
surrounding that feature.  Visible satellite images show
mesovorticies rotating around in the hurricane's eye.  The Dvorak
classifications have nudged back up this cycle and range from 75 to
90 kt. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised
a little to 80 kt.
 
Linda has moved over slightly warmer waters during the past few
hours and is now hugging the 26 deg C isotherm.  Annular hurricanes
like Linda typically hold their intensity or weaken at a slower pace
over cool waters than what is climatological, and it appears that
Linda is accomplishing that. Nonetheless, a combination of cool SSTs
and drier air should eventually cause a slow weakening trend during
the next several days.  The models suggest that an increase in
southerly shear is likely toward the end of the forecast period, and
that could assist in the storm becoming post-tropical by then.  The
NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the guidance in
the short term and then falls in line with the majority of the
guidance from days 3-5.
 
Linda is moving due westward at 270/9 kt.  The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged.  A mid-level ridge is expected to remain
anchored to the north of Linda, which should keep the storm on a
westward to west-northwestward track during the next several days.
The models have trended a little faster this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has followed suit.  Based on this prediction, Linda
is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 48-60 h and
be located to the north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands late
this weekend and early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 17.6N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 18.1N 129.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 18.7N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 19.6N 135.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 20.4N 138.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 21.5N 143.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 22.1N 148.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1800Z 22.6N 152.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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