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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
Some obvious changes have been noted with Linda during the past few 
hours.  Inner-core cloud top temperatures have continued to warm, 
particularly in the western semicircle, and banding features have 
appeared in the eastern part of the cyclone.  Overall, the cloud 
pattern has quickly become asymmetric and the eyewall could be open 
in the western quadrant.  It's been several hours since we've had a 
quality microwave overpass, so it's unclear whether or not Linda's 
undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  Using a consensus of the 
Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is 
lowered to 100 kt for this advisory.
 
It appears that Linda is finally beginning a slow weakening trend. 
The hurricane will soon be moving over gradually decreasing sea 
surface temperatures and into more dry, stable marine layer air mass 
later tonight.  It may already be ingesting some dry air from the 
west as a dry slot has become evident in the southern semicircle.  
These impeding environmental contributions are expected to further 
weaken the hurricane during the next several days.  No significant 
changes to the previous intensity forecast were made, and the latest 
advisory continues to follow the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus 
models.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt.  The 
track prediction philosophy remains unchanged as in the previous 
advisory.  A mid-tropospheric ridge situated north of the hurricane 
is still forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda 
during the next 24 h, instigating a turn toward the west-southwest.  
By the 48-h period, Linda should to turn back toward the west and 
west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low or trough 
developing west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track 
forecast is nudged closer to the TVCN consensus model and is 
basically an update of the previous NHC forecast.
 
A 0359 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind 
radii had contracted some, and adjustments were made, accordingly.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 19.3N 119.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.1N 120.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 18.6N 122.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 17.7N 125.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 17.9N 127.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 18.4N 129.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 20.2N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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