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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Some obvious changes have been noted with Linda during the past few
hours. Inner-core cloud top temperatures have continued to warm,
particularly in the western semicircle, and banding features have
appeared in the eastern part of the cyclone. Overall, the cloud
pattern has quickly become asymmetric and the eyewall could be open
in the western quadrant. It's been several hours since we've had a
quality microwave overpass, so it's unclear whether or not Linda's
undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Using a consensus of the
Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is
lowered to 100 kt for this advisory.
It appears that Linda is finally beginning a slow weakening trend.
The hurricane will soon be moving over gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and into more dry, stable marine layer air mass
later tonight. It may already be ingesting some dry air from the
west as a dry slot has become evident in the southern semicircle.
These impeding environmental contributions are expected to further
weaken the hurricane during the next several days. No significant
changes to the previous intensity forecast were made, and the latest
advisory continues to follow the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The
track prediction philosophy remains unchanged as in the previous
advisory. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated north of the hurricane
is still forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda
during the next 24 h, instigating a turn toward the west-southwest.
By the 48-h period, Linda should to turn back toward the west and
west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low or trough
developing west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track
forecast is nudged closer to the TVCN consensus model and is
basically an update of the previous NHC forecast.
A 0359 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind
radii had contracted some, and adjustments were made, accordingly.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 19.3N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.1N 120.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.4N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.2N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH