ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
The depression is slowly getting better organized, with deep
convection becoming a bit more concentrated. However, the system
appears to be undergoing moderate to strong northerly shear, which
is keeping this convection mainly confined to the southern portion
of the cyclone's circulation. The initial intensity is being held
at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak T-number
The estimated motion of the depression is 295/9 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward by Wednesday as a ridge builds to its
north, and then resume a west-northwestward motion by late this week
as it begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge.
This track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.
Thereafter, the depression is forecast to move away from the coast
of Mexico. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one, and lies near the consensus guidance tracks.
The depression is within a moist, unstable environment with ample
oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few days.
However, ongoing northerly vertical wind shear will likely slow the
rate of intensification of this system over the next day or so. The
shear is forecast to diminish somewhat after 24 h, which should
allow for a faster rate of intensification for a couple of days.
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to reach cooler
waters, which should begin to weaken the system. The official NHC
intensity forecast is near the IVCN consensus through 60 h, and is
then near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA thereafter. Based on
this forecast, the depression should become a tropical storm by
tonight and a hurricane on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 13.4N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.0N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 14.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 14.9N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 15.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.4N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 75 KT 85 MPH