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TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
 
 
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