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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  10SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
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