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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The center of Kevin this evening consists of a broad low-level 
swirl, with a decaying area of convection that has become 
increasingly detached from the circulation in the southwestern 
quadrant. The 0000 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were both 
T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS 
SATCON estimate was a bit higher at 38 kt. Given the degradation in 
convective structure from the previous advisory, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

After an earlier westward jog, the initial motion has resumed a more 
northwest heading at 305/11 kt. The track philosophy remains 
unchanged, as Kevin's broad circulation will continue to be steered 
to the west-northwest or northwest along the southwestern side of a 
deep tropospheric ridge for the next 48-60 hours. The latest track 
forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory, and 
lies nearly along the HCCA consensus aid, just a shade west of the 
previous forecast track.

As Kevin continues to move into cooler sea-surface temperatures and 
a drier air-mass, the storm is expected to continue weakening as the 
remaining organized convection ceases. The latest intensity forecast 
weakens Kevin to a tropical depression tomorrow morning and 
degenerates the cyclone into a remnant low by Friday morning, in 
good agreement with the model guidance that shows the remaining 
convection dissipating by tomorrow night. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 22.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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