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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021
The center of Kevin this evening consists of a broad low-level
swirl, with a decaying area of convection that has become
increasingly detached from the circulation in the southwestern
quadrant. The 0000 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were both
T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate was a bit higher at 38 kt. Given the degradation in
convective structure from the previous advisory, the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.
After an earlier westward jog, the initial motion has resumed a more
northwest heading at 305/11 kt. The track philosophy remains
unchanged, as Kevin's broad circulation will continue to be steered
to the west-northwest or northwest along the southwestern side of a
deep tropospheric ridge for the next 48-60 hours. The latest track
forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory, and
lies nearly along the HCCA consensus aid, just a shade west of the
previous forecast track.
As Kevin continues to move into cooler sea-surface temperatures and
a drier air-mass, the storm is expected to continue weakening as the
remaining organized convection ceases. The latest intensity forecast
weakens Kevin to a tropical depression tomorrow morning and
degenerates the cyclone into a remnant low by Friday morning, in
good agreement with the model guidance that shows the remaining
convection dissipating by tomorrow night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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