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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021
 
Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad 
circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of 
deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly 
shear over the system.  With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 
from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted 
a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the 
initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt.  A mid-tropospheric high 
located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a 
northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, 
which is shown by all the track models.  Most differences among the 
models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest 
models and the GFS one of the slowest.  In general, the NHC track 
forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position 
adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the 
forecast track compared to the previous advisory.

Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 
26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees 
in a couple of days.  Also, the shear affecting the storm is only 
expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce 
imminent weakening.  In line with the latest intensity guidance, 
Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours 
and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all 
of its deep convection.  This scenario is shown by the GFS and 
ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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