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Tropical Storm KEVIN

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph.
Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as 
multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around 
a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly 
south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud 
tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen 
on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, 
respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering 
between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 
kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given 
the earlier ASCAT data. 

The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow 
the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating 
around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is 
expected to continue over the next several days as the large 
cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. 
The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the 
previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted 
a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to 
the track guidance consensus. 

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep 
Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of 
the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will 
also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, 
with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the 
cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual 
weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data 
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its 
remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC 
intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. 
INIT  11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Papin/Stewart