ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer 
pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated 
cyclonic gyre.  This satellite wind data also indicated that the 
strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the 
south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the 
wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep 
convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few 
believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, 
so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the 
disorganized satellite presentation.
 
The scatterometer data along with surface observations from Clarion 
Island revealed that the mean center of Kevin is farther to the 
southwest than previously estimated, and therefore the initial 
motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/08kt. There is no change to the 
forecast track philosophy. A general northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as 
Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge.  
Other than an adjustment to the short-term track based on the shift 
in the initial position, the latest NHC track forecast is little 
changed from the previous one.
 
Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's
ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level
moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on
this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in
strength through tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday.
By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery continue to
suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so
the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.1N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
NNNN