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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south
and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest,
and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern
semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted
in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt for this advisory.
Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog
overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or
305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is
expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial
motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast
track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it
still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids.
Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to
strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture.
By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be
passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment.
Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term,
followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest
NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By
72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that
Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official
NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
NNNN