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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021
 
Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection 
displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field 
due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small 
curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the 
eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to 
abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt, 
more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak 
surface winds near 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08 
kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. 
Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the 
120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a 
deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the 
right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern 
portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the 
south and the consensus models to the north.
 
Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest 
northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little 
change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface 
temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level 
environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the 
shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would 
normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over 
near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than 
strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely 
follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy 
COAMPS-TC model.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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