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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021
 
Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed 
today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The 
circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one 
dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger 
cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the 
southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a  generalized mean 
cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that 
tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle, 
with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from 
the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and 
based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, 
the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. 

Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters 
and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to 
moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent 
deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the 
storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the 
next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive 
for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer 
anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing 
SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These 
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to 
begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over 
water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result 
in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is 
in  good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance. 
 
Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along 
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering 
pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact 
for the next several days, resulting in a continued 
west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again 
shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC 
track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on 
the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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