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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021
Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind
shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder
than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center
and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from
55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from
these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the
same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of
Kevin has changed little this morning.
The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern
is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the
next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward
motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight
shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in
between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance.
The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed
Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear.
With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the
center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening
to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the
next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over
decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment.
These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone
to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over
water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and
is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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