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Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021
 
Strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 25 kt 
continues across Ignacio, with only small cluster of weakening 
thunderstorms located west of the fully exposed low-level 
circulation center. Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the 
previous advisory, and cloud-top temperatures are now barely -55C. 
With the shear forecast to continue to increase while Ignacio moves 
over sub-26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures by this afternoon, 
regeneration of significant deep convection near the center appears 
highly unlikely. As a result, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into 
a remnant low pressure system by this evening, if not sooner, with 
dissipation expected on Wednesday.
 
The initial motion estimate is 335/05 kt. As Ignacio weakens
further and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone is expected
to meander within weak, low-level steering currents until the
system dissipates by 36 hours, if not earlier. The new NHC forecast
track is similar to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-
consensus models, except for the earlier dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 20.5N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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