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Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021
The low-level center of Ignacio is becoming even more separated from
the main area of deep convection as strong east-northeasterly shear
continue to affect the cyclone. The associated deep convection is
also shrinking in coverage. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB and SAB still give 35 kt, but that is probably a generous
estimate for the strength of the system given its disheveled
appearance.
Ignacio is moving northwestward, or about 310/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to slow its forward speed while it nears a weakness between
two low- to mid-level anticyclones in a day or so. The track
guidance shows an eastward turn in 24-36 hours, but the system will
likely be influenced more by the weak surface flow, and move very
slowly, by that time. The official track forecast is shifted
eastward from the previous one, but is not nearly as far east as the
latest model consensus.
Ignacio is expected to move through an environment of strong shear
and over marginal SSTs through tomorrow. The model guidance is in
agreement that the cyclone will weaken to a depression on Tuesday,
and the global models show the system dissipating in 48 hours.
Given the current disorganizing trend, however, Ignacio may
degenerate even faster than shown here.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 19.6N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.3N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.1N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 21.6N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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