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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021
 
The center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern 
edge of the main area of deep convection, as the system is 
experiencing northeasterly shear due to the flow on the south side 
of a large upper-level anticyclone.  Enhanced infrared imagery shows 
that the convection is very deep over the western part of the 
circulation, but there is little evidence of banding features.  The 
current intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak 
estimate from SAB.  Hopefully we will soon obtain some additional 
scatterometer data to provide an intensity estimate.
 
The depression continues its west-northwestward track with a motion 
near 295/11 kt.  This heading should continue for the next day or 
two while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a 
mid-level high pressure area.  In 2-3 days, the track could become 
complicated by the interaction with the circulation of Hilda to the 
southwest, but the system will probably be quite weak by that time. 
The official forecast is close to the previous one but somewhat 
slower in the latter part of the period.
 
Assuming that the low-level center will become at least a little 
more embedded within the convection later tonight, the system is 
forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight.  The storm 
will probably be short-lived, however, with increased shear and 
cooler waters causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 
a couple of days.  The official forecast is not far from the model 
consensus predictions, but a more rapid weakening is predicted by 
the global models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 17.6N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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