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Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021
 
During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has 
waned.  A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak 
believable winds of around 30 kt.  The latest Dvorak T- and 
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these 
data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt.  Jimena is 
currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass. 
In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path 
during the next 12 hours.  These factors should cause continued 
weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low 
by late tonight or early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt.  The west-northwestward 
motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a 
gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the 
low-level trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is slightly to 
the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement 
with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be 
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena 
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific 
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 
and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
 
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