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Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021
During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has
waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak
believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these
data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is
currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass.
In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path
during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued
weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by late tonight or early Saturday.
The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward
motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a
gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to
the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement
with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.
Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2
and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW